The pandemic watch boom and correction

Swiss watchmaking was already selling fewer watches for more money. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry’s tables give 25.4 million wristwatches exported in 2016 and 20.6 million in 2019, while their export value rose from CHF 18.3 billion to CHF 20.5 billion.^7, 9

The federation’s report on 2019 says the growth came almost entirely from watches above CHF 3,000 at export price, and compares the year’s fall in volume, 3.1 million watches, with the dip of the early 1980s.¹¹

Its report already lists the sharp rise of the pre-owned market and the epidemic in China among the factors the industry had to plan for.¹¹

Hong Kong had been the industry’s largest market for twelve years. The trade met each spring at Baselworld, the Basel watch and jewellery fair, though the Swatch Group had already left it.^1, 5, 12

On 28 February 2020 the Federal Council banned events of more than a thousand people, and Baselworld, due to open on 30 April, was postponed, The Art Newspaper reports. In March Rolex closed its sites in Geneva, Bienne and Crissier, and Patek Philippe its production, until at least 27 March, National Jeweler reported; by May, the employers’ association told swissinfo, 40,000 of the 50,000 workers under the industry’s collective agreement were on short-time work.^{13, 14, 15}

Exports fell 21.8 per cent in 2020, from CHF 21.7 billion to 17 billion, and by 61.6 per cent in the second quarter. Wristwatch exports fell by a third in number, to 13.8 million, most sharply below CHF 500. China, buying at home what it had bought abroad, grew 20 per cent and became the largest direct market; Hong Kong fell to third.^1, 4, 16

The trade fair did not survive it. On 14 April 2020 Rolex, Tudor, Patek Philippe, Chanel and Chopard left Baselworld for a new show in Geneva beside Watches & Wonders; the organiser cancelled Baselworld 2021, Watches & Wonders was held online in 2020 and again in April 2021, and a revived Baselworld planned for 2022 was called off in November 2021. WatchesBySJX reports that the brands had long complained of how the fair was run.^{5, 12, 17, 18, 19}

The rebound was as fast as the fall. Exports rose 31.2 per cent in 2021 to CHF 22.3 billion, just above the record of 2014, and the United States was again the largest market. The federation puts it down to demand in China and the United States, to digital sales, and to savings built up in lockdown and spent on goods while travel and other luxuries were restricted.^2, 4

New buyers came with it, by the auction houses’ own accounts. Sotheby’s said half its watch buyers of 2020 were new to the category and 40 per cent were under forty; Phillips said half its buyers of 2021, in every category, were buying from it for the first time. Chrono24’s data, in a McKinsey report, put people aged 18 to 39 behind 61 per cent of requests for pre-owned watches.^{20, 21, 22}

Second-hand prices rose fastest of all. WatchCharts’ average second-hand price peaked at $45,108 in March 2022, CNBC reports; Pierre-Nicolas Schwab’s study of the Patek Philippe Nautilus finds the steel 5711 up 361 per cent between January 2018 and February 2022, rising from November 2020. Patek ended the 5711 in February 2021, when, JCK reported, it often resold for about twice its retail price of $33,710. Rolex said in September 2021 that the scarcity of its watches was “not a strategy”: its production could not meet demand.^{6, 23, 24, 25}

The resale boom broke in spring 2022. CNBC and Business Insider report WatchCharts’ index down 31 and 32 per cent from its March 2022 peak by mid-2023; the Bloomberg Subdial index, by Bloomberg’s account, was down about 42 per cent from April 2022 by December 2023.^{6, 26, 27}

The fall was uneven. Over the year to mid-2023, CNBC reports, WatchCharts’ figures put Rolex down 12 per cent, Patek Philippe 19 and Audemars Piguet 17; the WatchCharts and Morgan Stanley report, as JCK gives it, counted eleven quarterly falls in a row to the end of 2024.^6, 28

Premiums fell while the industry grew. Swiss exports set records in 2022, at CHF 24.9 billion, and in 2023, at CHF 26.7 billion; they did not fall until 2024. The collapse of resale prices was not a collapse of the watch industry.^{3, 4, 29, 30}

List prices kept rising. Monochrome and Fratello report Rolex’s Submariner Date at €8,650 in France in 2021, €10,200 in Europe in January 2023 and €11,100 in January 2026; Fratello gives Omega’s Speedmaster Professional at €6,100 in January 2021 and €7,100 by September 2022.^{31, 32, 33, 34}

A maker entered the second-hand trade. Rolex Certified Pre-Owned began in December 2022 at Bucherer in six European countries, Time+Tide reports, and Rolex bought Bucherer, its largest retailer, in 2023; JCK reports the scheme at 107 retailers by the end of 2024.^{28, 35, 36, 37}

Swiss watchmaking came out of it smaller in number and larger in value. Between 2019 and 2025 wristwatch exports fell from 20.6 million to 14.6 million, 29 per cent fewer, while their export value rose from CHF 20.5 billion to CHF 24.4 billion, 19 per cent more. The export value per watch rose from about CHF 990 to about CHF 1,670; that is a price at the border, not in the shop, and it rose mainly because the cheaper watches left the mix.^4, 7

The change ran through the price bands. Between 2019 and 2025 exports of watches at CHF 200 to 500 fell from 4.0 million to 1.8 million, while those above CHF 3,000 rose from 1.7 million to 1.9 million and their share of wristwatch export value from 69 to 80 per cent.^4, 9, 38

Exports fell 2.8 per cent in 2024, which the federation puts down to slowing demand among “so-called aspirational customers”: watches below CHF 3,000 at export price fell 15.6 per cent in value, those above rose 1 per cent, and China fell 25.8 per cent. In 2025 exports fell a further 1.7 per cent; the federation names American trade policy, China, and record gold and franc prices.^30, 39

Deloitte’s studies describe a “premiumisation trend”: export volume down 43 per cent since 2016 and value up 34 per cent, executives confident about watches above CHF 50,000 and about 60 per cent negative about the entry and middle ranges, where weaker purchasing power matters most.^40, 41

Second-hand prices rose 4.9 per cent in 2025 after three years of falls, Watch Insider reports from the WatchCharts and Morgan Stanley figures; on average only Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet still traded above their retail prices.⁴²

Demand at the low end was there when it was offered. Crowds closed Swatch’s London shop on Carnaby Street on the day the Omega-branded MoonSwatch went on sale in March 2022, ITV News reported, and the Swatch Group said in January 2023 that it had sold more than a million. The writer Jack Forster argued in 2022 that premiumisation was eroding the good cheap mechanical watch through which collectors learn.^{43, 44, 45}

The federation’s world figures show how far apart the industries had grown: in 2025 Switzerland exported 14.6 million wristwatches at an average of $2,018 each, China 589.5 million at about $4. They are different trades, not shares of one market.⁴⁶

Whether that leaves a stronger luxury industry or a narrower one is still argued: Deloitte’s 2026 study reports the top of the market less sensitive to price and more stable, and aspirational buyers the most exposed.⁴¹